The development and uses of regional indexes of leading economic indicators

Economic indicators ; Regional economics

A new monthly index of the Texas business cycle

The timing, length and severity of economic recessions and expansions in a state are important to businesses seeking to set up operations or expand in those areas. Given a limited amount of data at the state level and their sometimes inconsistent movements, it is not straight forward to define a state business cycle. In this article I attempt to measure the Texas business cycle using a technique developed by Stock and Watson (1989,1991) that statistically estimates the underlying comovement in broad indicators of the state’s economy. The new Texas Coincident Index (TCI) is constructed with the Texas unemployment rate, a quarterly Real Gross State Product measure due to Berger and Phillips (1995), and a nonfarm employment series that is benchmarked quarterly and is seasonally adjusted using the two-step approach described in Berger and Phillips (1993). Use of these components and the Kalman filter, which smoothes across variables as well as over time, results in an index which is much smoother and gives clearer signals of turning points than the old TCI produced by Phillips (1988). The new TCI exhibits cyclical patterns that are highly correlated with those of employment and RGSP, and matches well with recessions and expansions that were independently identified.Index numbers (Economics)

Texas economy to ride higher in the saddle in 2011

The Texas economy grew moderately in 2010, outperforming most other states. Jobs increased by 209,000, a growth rate of about 2 percent—near the state’s average pace since 1980. Strength in the high-tech and energy sectors was an important source of Texas’ economic might relative to other parts of the country. The state also suffered less from housing price declines. ; Leading indicators, generally positive at the end of 2010, suggest an improving outlook in 2011 as consumers and businesses regain confidence in the economy. The Dallas Fed forecasting model projects Texas job growth of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent this year.>Economic conditions - Texas ; Economic indicators

Can cities control their destiny?

Urban economics ; Employment (Economic theory)

Border region makes progress in the 1990s

North American Free Trade Agreement ; Employment - Texas ; Income

Regional update : U.S. slowdown reaches Texas

Economic conditions - Texas ; Recessions

Market solutions to water allocation in Texas

San Antonio (Tex.) ; Water-supply - Texas ; Federal Reserve District, 11th

The disappearing January blip and other state employment mysteries

Employment (Economic theory) ; Statistics

Spotlight: Farm real estate values: Texas holds steady in 2008, bucking U.S. trend

The value of Texas agricultural land has followed national trends since the early 1990s. Last year, however, the state's average price per acre remained unchanged, a sharp contrast to the nation's first decline in 17 years. Texas was one of only eight states that didn't see falling farm values in 2008.Farms - Valuation ; Agriculture - Economic aspects

Banking industry evolution along the Texas-Mexico border

Maquiladora ; Income ; Remittances ; Emerging markets ; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ; Debit cards